Welcome to 2020 - January Sales Market Update

Welcome to 2020 - January Sales Market Update

10 Jan 2020

It is probably the time of year, but with so many changes going on in the world, I was interested to see how things had changed over the last 9-10 years.  The information below is from a variety of sources, SQM research, Domain PriceFinder and CoreLogic. The problem with statistics is that no one calculates them the same way, and that goes for these three organisations as well. It is part of the reason why there is so much argument about what is happening in the market.

Sales Volumes

These comparisons cover postcode 2112, which includes Ryde, Denistone East and Putney. I’ve looked at the surrounding postcodes, and they are all pretty similar so this will give you a good indicator of how things have changed and how they haven’t.

Nov 2010 Nov 2019                Percentage increase
Total Properties on the market for sale  172 254 48%
Those that have been on the market over 180 days 17 59 347%

The numbers that strike me is the amount of property that has been on the market for a while. These numbers come from the SQM Research website. At the end of November 2019, they had identified 254 distinct properties advertised for sale and still not sold. Of those, 59 have been on the market for more than six months.

While the property market has improved since 2018, it is nowhere near what it was. Some of that has to do with new units taking longer to sell. On the other hand, SQM only tracks those advertised properties with a fully unique address. Most developers don’t advertise every unit’s individual address because they don’t want to show how many they still have for sale in a block. That would mean that SQM is more likely to be under-reporting the numbers of properties sitting on the market rather than over-reporting.

Compare that to 2010, when there was a lot less property on the market and only 17.5% of those properties were on the market for more than three months. In this market, sitting on the market is a lot more common than it used to be. And they are not the only ones to report this slower turnover.

PriceFinder who is owned by Domain, track numbers of sales and median sale price. Here are the numbers for the last six years of house sales (not all sales) in Ryde.

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (not complete)

 

Volume 250 219 205 165 153 136

Back in the 1990’s and early 2000’s the average number of house sales in the suburb of Ryde was around 250 per year. That volume has fallen by close to half. So all we can say is a lot less property is selling and getting sold is not as easy as many are suggesting.

Sales Prices

Again there is a lot of disagreement between the researchers. CoreLogic is regularly quoted in the news feeds and papers and uses a variety of sources of information; they also use a rather complex algorithm (mathematical formula) to adjust the data to reflect what they believe is going on in the market. PriceFinder uses the figures from the Land titles office and makes little adjustment to the numbers to come up with their median price. These figures come from PriceFinder.

2010 2017 2018 2019
Median                  Price $845,000 $1,735,000 $1,501,000 $1,393,750
Movement compared to the previous year 9.7% 17.2% -13.5%  

-7.1%

 

CoreLogic has been reporting growth in Sydney prices since we had the election and the interest rates started to drop, so let us look at their figures for this year. They report median sale prices every month, so if the market has recovered in Ryde, these figures should show it. Again these are for houses rather than units.

Month           Median Price

Jan                  $1,466,250

Feb                  $1,410,000

March             $1,393,750

April               $1,373,500

May                $1,370,000

June              $1,350,000

July              $1,350,500

Aug               $1,338,000

Sept             $1,335,000

The statistics aren’t showing a recovery so much as a plateauing. Maybe October through to December will show some growth. We will have to wait and see.

If this looks a little bleak, it’s not really. Wait until you see our review next month on the rental market.  Now that’s rough.