Making News
Our property sales and rental updates are written to help cut through much of the noise and hype common to the real estate media. We believe you make the better decisions when you are properly informed and understand how the market is evolving. We try to make our analysis and observations easy to understand and enjoyable to read. Feel free to drop us a line if something we have written confuses or interests you. Enjoy
Market Update
Market Update
Predictions about Real estate seem to come in two versions.
The first are like weather forecasts. CoreLogic and SQM are good examples. They analyse the market, know the data in detail and predict with reassuring consistency that tomorrow will be very much like today. They get a little hazy when they have to make predictions for a year or so out. They will generally get the direction of the market right because markets don’t change their direction that often. But they rarely predict correctly how strong or weak the growth or contraction will be. None of these companies saw last year’s growth in houses of over 25% coming until it was here.
The second group are far more adventurous. They try to predict the inflection points in the market, the moments when the market changes from growth to a downturn or vice versa. And when they get it wrong, many of the weather forecasters, so to speak, are more than happy to suggest they knew better.
Real estate isn’t much different to other markets. The price achieved on a particular piece of property is driven by your buyer’s ability to pay and the number of buyers they are competing against to buy. The interest rates and their employment control their ability to borrow money. Construction boosts the number of options open to a buyer, and population movements influence the number of buyers looking to buy. There you have it, our real estate market.
By far, the biggest driver of a buyer’s capacity is interest rates. Not so much the actual interest rate the bank manager will lend you but the effective APRA interest rate. APRA stands for the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. It’s their job to minimise the ‘credit risk’ in the economy by making sure if interest rates jump, the banks won’t end up with lots of borrowers defaulting (the financial crisis of 2008). They do it by telling banks how much of an increase in interest rates a borrower must be able to absorb before the bank can approve the loan.
They can also get even more prescriptive by telling banks how much they are allowed to lend to particular groups like investors or businesses or the proportion of loans they lend that are highly geared (95% borrowing). A couple of decades ago, the Reserve Bank was the boss. When it put up the interest rate, everyone suffered. Now it’s APRA, and they shut down particular groups of borrowers while leaving others untouched.
In 2017 APRA put caps on the amount of interest-only loans and investor loans. The market felt it straight away. Unit prices fell while house prices were reasonably unaffected. That’s because 50% of units are bought by investors, whereas investors buy less than 10% of houses on the market. In 2019 APRA set the buffer rate at 2.5%. In November 2021, they increased it to 3%. It was hardly mentioned and talked about in the press, but the market’s effect was instantaneous. The days of ever-increasing prices pretty much evaporated. Buyer numbers dropped at open houses, and they talked about their belief that the market had peaked. The most common statement we heard about the market levelling was ‘it had to, didn’t it; it couldn’t keep going on like this. It had nothing to do with ‘had to’ and everything to do with APRA. Imagine what the press would be like if the Reserve Bank had put interest rates up 0.5% in one go. It would be worse than Omnicom. But that’s the power of APRA to target a small group and leave everyone else unawares.
The other key thing to remember is that APRA’s buffers don’t affect you once you have the loan. You pay the interest rate the bank charges.
So if you want to make predictions about the real estate market, you have to be able to predict interest rate movements and lending rules. In that field, there is one person you would have trouble missing. His name is Christopher Joye, and his investment business makes money by predicting rate movements and the price of financing before the rest of the bond market thinks they know. To do this, his investment firm employs nearly as many Mathematics PHDs as he does investment brokers. It also helps that he was an Analyst in the Reserve Bank.
His headline-grabbing prediction is that Sydney Real Estate prices will fall by about 20% in the next two years. It does sound terrible, but it is all relative.
In November last year, he wrote that he believed the RBA would lift interest rates by 1% later this year and next. Now others are starting to talk the same. Part of that is to get interest rates back to normal levels and partly to cool inflation that has been building in the system driven by the masses of government money and our relatively constant supply shortages.
Inflation is a complex animal when it comes to real estate. We haven’t had inflation for quite a while, and it’s not all bad if you are an investor, particularly a borrower. Firstly, inflation means that the actual cost/value for a loan falls over time. Inflation boosts incomes and makes monthly loan repayments more manageable. Inflation also pushes rents up and makes the cost of funding property easier. It isn’t widely apparent, but rents are probably just starting to rise now. Nothing flash, but better now than we were looking at 12 months ago.
Rent increases will significantly affect the unit market, remembering 50% of units are rented. With rents falling over the last three years, more and more investors decided to call it a day and put their units on the market. Between 2018 and now, unit prices have fallen 5% in our area. The supply of units for sale over the last couple of years has been extraordinarily high, but we think that will change sometime this year.
On the other hand, the house market has been driven by people upgrading, and we have seen demand explode. Last year we saw close to 30% growth in house prices with land suitable for building being sold at insane prices.
So back to Christopher’s prediction of a 20% fall. He doesn’t see it as immediate. He wrote these predictions in October last year. He expected that the market would increase over the first half of this year by about 10%.
So when you discount the 20% by 10%, a net 10% fall compared to where we are right now is understandable, a plateauing if you like.
A 1% increase in interest rates may stop others from buying, but it won’t force sales of those who already bought. Even people who buy at the market’s peak won’t lose their money because inflation will make up that fall in a couple of years.
Many people have predicted crashes and corrections in the past and got it wrong. In April 2020, with the pandemic just starting and everyone frightened of what would happen, many suggested that house prices would crash by as much as 40%. He instead came out saying that his modelling showed that we would see 20-30% growth in property values. Many laughed, now those same people have chosen to forget. Being able to predict correctly doesn’t make you popular.
When making predictions, it is best to remember the adage, ‘There are two groups of people, those that don’t know and those that know they don’t know.’ I think we all fall into both camps.
There is a lot I know I don’t know and some things that I thought I did know that the world is reminding me not to be so sure about. I am not suggesting we don’t think about what will happen. I’m just so much more conscious now of what it takes to keep our business strong and our team safe. Nothing is easy, and nothing is certain. I think this year should be a good one. Now let’s see what happens.
Written by Stephen Jackson
It's a great time to sell but you need to plan for what's next.
It's a great time to sell but you need to plan for what's next.
Demand for property is genuinely outstripping supply. A strengthening economy, solid jobs market and historically low-interest rates that appear locked in for at least the medium-term add to the demand for property.
The latest figures show the national stock of homes for sale is 28.5% lower this year than the five-year average. Over the same timescale, new listings are down 12.9%. That’s a tight supply.
Auction clearance rates across Sydney have come back a little but are still over 65% which is still a massive performance. Homes are selling one week faster on average than they were a year ago. And the Australian real estate market overall is now valued at over $8.1 trillion. That’s more than a $1 trillion increase in 12 months. And a large part of that boom has been driven by price growth in our country towns and regional areas.
So if you are thinking of buying and selling in a hot market, these are some of our ideas that might help you plan your way forward.
What does better look like?
Moving to a different suburb or property style – considering a sea or tree change – can be a dream come true or a nightmare in the making. The difference between it being a step up or a step backwards is how well you know what you want and your willingness to try before you buy. If you don’t know for sure that your next purchase is right for you or you’re worried about not finding a suitable property to buy, consider renting while you assess your options. Renting can be challenging right now in many of our booming markets, but unless you are confident that you have the ‘where and what to buy next absolutely right, test areas and property types by renting. Keep your current property and even rent it out to even up the cash flow. Many who have used this system discovered things about an area or style of home they hadn’t appreciated. That insight let them refine their criteria, so when they did buy and sell, they were happier and better off than they would have been otherwise.
The market is always local
Regardless of the national or capital city headlines, property prices are all about local markets. Always check what is happening to prices in our neighbourhood, and more importantly the area you are thinking of buying.
With real estate, there are always longer term ‘swings and roundabouts,’ as they say. Some areas and types of property are just not doing as well as others. Right now, that’s because of long-term changes in how we live. Much of our white-collar workforce are looking to work from home at least a couple of days a week. Units that were always in demand by students, investors and first home buyers are less in demand. That may change back, but no one knows when. The key thing if you are selling or buying is to know your local market. Headlines about the national market are just headlines. There is plenty of essential data on each local market, so ask us, we can help.
Is your home hot?
The market may be on fire, but how do buyers feel about your particular property type? While all boats float in a high tide, some property types will be more in demand than others from suburb to suburb. So if you’re selling an unrenovated and dated property in a market of all near new homes, even a hot market may not offer the dividends you hoped for. On the flip side, if you’re selling a large family home in an area clamouring for upgrades, you could be in luck. But don’t think you have to accept the status quo. Marketing and targeted affordable renovations can change a property from being a wallflower to finding a market niche with buyers falling over themselves to secure. A property doesn’t need to be the most popular; it just needs to appeal to a few buyers. Marketing and presentation are about targeting and focus.
Watch the supply and demand curve
The economic data points that make this market look like it will continue to grow can change quickly. Changes to interest rates, employment or even the calling of an election can soon turn up or down the heat in the market. It pays to be vigilant. It also pays not to get caught up with every press release and prediction of the market. No one ever reads the market flawlessly, and even the best get it wrong more often than they get it right. What we know right now is that our economy will more likely get stronger rather than weaker. We are heading towards winter, which is usually always a time of fewer homes for sale. We can probably expect strong prices off the back of low supply for a few more months to come. When eventually interest rates start to climb, that’s when things will turn down, or maybe not, who knows, so be safe. Plan for the long term, make sure you can afford the rise in interest rates and know that at some point, the market will change.
What’s your life plan?
Regardless of what the market is doing, the most important thing is to consider your personal life goals and the role that property plays in these. Your property is likely to be your largest financial asset – and your shelter, security and place to raise your family. Lifestyle desires should influence when you want to sell, not just money and optimising the market. If this feels like the right time for you, then get into the market.
Sell or buy first
This is the question people have argued about forever. In a rising market, buying before selling can be scary but not as frightening as having sold and watching the market climb further and more out of reach with each day. That’s the stuff of nightmares and cold sweats. Having to buy something that’s not ideal just because you are under pressure to find something is really not smart. Think about buying with a delayed settlement. You’ll be able to sell in this market with out too much issue. If you aren’t sure on the property you want to buy or the area you want to buy in, think about moving into the area and renting. You’ll be surprised how much better you’ll understand the area, the better properties for what you need and you’ll be on the spot when the right home comes on to the market.
We can help
If there is a way we can help, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’d be happy to explain local prices, buying trends, time-on-market expectations and the type of marketing campaign that will maximise the value of your home.
Property is a tremendous long term asset, so are we. Talk to us.
JacksonRowe Real Estate is registered as a Covid Safe business.
JacksonRowe Real Estate is registered as a Covid Safe business.
JacksonRowe is committed to keeping you safe & ensuring the well-being of our staff. Please read our signs and follow staff instructions if you are coming to our office for an appointment or attending an open home.
Thank you for your co-operation.
Winter Local Market Report
Winter Local Market Report
There is a saying ‘Nature abhors a vacuum’. It seems when people don’t know what is going to happen, the louder and more emphatic they become with their opinions.
There are many loud opinions as to what is happening in the market and how it is holding up. Real estate is an industry composed of many players and even more commentators. Journalists pick up a researcher’s opinions and observations and run through a simplifying process, creating sound bites all intended to make the information easier to understand. As the headlines appear, the original researchers are often left wondering how their observations got so distorted.
It seems our desire for certainty means we will distort and filter information to prove we know what is happening rather than allow the data to challenge what we believe. Psychologists call it Cognitive Bias.
My industry seems to offer people certainty on steroids.
So many salespeople trot out the latest statistics to prove one point or another as they try to convince a seller that they, more than anyone else are the expert they need to sell their home.
Right now, from our Real Estate Institute of NSW down, people are talking the market up, it is strong, auction clearance rates are great, please believe us, please sell. On the other side of the divide, banks and lenders are saying that they think the market will fall, 10%, 20% and even 30%. For a while, with all the negative headlines, it felt like there was a race to suggest the worst.
The simple fact is that our society’s response to COVID-19 only started about three months ago. People say a lot can change in a short space of time, and that’s very true, but knowing what is happening right now, well that isn’t so easy.
Let’s start with Auctions.
Auction Clearance Rates
The Domain media organisation reports auction clearance rates each week. You see them in the Sydney Morning Herald each Sunday and quoted as a barometer on market strength.
Domain calculates this by having staff ring each selling agent who has had an auction during the week and ask them how it went. Simple enough system but when most agents don’t sell their properties, they become a little reluctant to ring Domain back. Most want to avoid the negative image of their company name next to the words ‘Passed In’ or ‘No bid’ in Sunday’s papers for all to read.
Domain uses multiple categories such as sold or sold prior or passed in and so on to communicate the outcome. Maybe they should also have a category, Agent is avoiding us.
Reading Domain’s methodology, they say their clearance rates only reflect the auctions where they know the results. That means they are based solely on property data that agents are happy to report, not the results that agents don’t want to provide. That makes their data way more optimistic than reality.
SQM Research has similar doubts about the reliability of these numbers and so has put together their own data. Instead of relying on agents, they track the properties advertised on the major portals. If a property is re-advertised after the auction, they assume it didn’t sell. If the property disappears off the portals without appearing as sold it is listed as withdrawn without selling. All that seem fair enough.
The following figures are for all the Sydney area. SQM has been tracking the information since the beginning of February. To give you an idea of the difference I’ve compared SQM’s and Domain’s figures.
| Date | Domain’s Clearance rates | SQM’s Clearance rates | SQM’s Numbers of property auctioned | SQM’s Numbers of property sold |
| 2nd February | 77% | 63.2% | 136 | 86 |
| 9th February | 77% | 69% | 420 | 290 |
| 16th February | 84% | 66.5% | 567 | 377 |
| 23rd February | 76% | 65.1% | 941 | 613 |
| February Overall | 78.5% | 66.2% | 2064 | 1366 |
| 1st March | 77% | 67.4% | 1072 | 722 |
| 8th March | 76% | 64.8% | 827 | 536 |
| 15th March | 69% | 56.9% | 764 | 435 |
| 22nd March | 66% | 50.9% | 870 | 443 |
| 29th March | 38% | 34.3% | 1184 | 406 |
| March Overall | 63.7% | 53.9% | 4717 | 2543 |
| 5th April | 37% | 33% | 1468 | 485 |
| 12th April (Easter) | Not reported | 27.6% | 391 | 108 |
| 19th April | 34% | 28.3% | 635 | 180 |
| 26th April | Not reported | 34.4% | 131 | 45 |
| April Overall | 36.1% | 31.1% | 2625 | 818 |
| 3rd May | 50% | 38.9% | 262 | 102 |
| 10th May | 68% | 44.9% | 187 | 84 |
| 17th May | 75% | 47.4% | 171 | 81 |
| 24th May | 67% | 47% | 270 | 128 |
| May Overall | 63.7% | 44.3% | 890 | 395 |
By May, Domain was reporting close to 2 out of 3 properties selling whereas SQM was showing that it was closer to 2 out of 5.
Why such a large discrepancy? In May only 55% of auction results were being reported back to Domain by sales agents. Given the low numbers of auctions, I do wonder why so many sales agents didn’t have time to return phone calls!
Most market commentators suggest a clearance rate of 70% or higher predicts growth in property prices and a clearance rate of 60% or more is indicative of a market that will maintain prices. The real estate industry is excited by Domain’s clearance rates over May because they support their argument that real estate prices are weathering the COVID-19 pandemic. You might have also guessed; the industry is very quiet about SQM’s auction figures.
Real estate prices may hold up, but I don’t think Auction clearance rates are saying that right now.
Sales volumes
If you have low sales volumes, there is not enough data to accurately predict what is happening to prices.
You can see the volume of properties auctioned has dropped sharply from March to now and it’s understandable given that on 25th March, the Federal Government banned Public Auctions and Open Houses. They were reinstated from the 1st May, so it is probably still a bit early to see a bounce in the figures yet.
But the big issue is the numbers of properties sold. For this time of year, we usually have 2000-3000 sales per month by auction. It has dropped to 15% of that now.
Please don’t misunderstand. I’m not suggesting auctions have failed as a selling method; Private Treaty numbers are down as well, it is just harder to find clear, up-to-date, numbers on Private Treaty Sales.
CoreLogic produces a Hedonic Home Value Index. These are the price growth percentages you are most likely to see quoted on TV and in the paper when any journalist talks on how property prices have increased or fallen.
Without getting too complicated, this index is a piece of advanced mathematics. It tries to break down every sale into the value of its components. It takes every sale of a home and calculates separate values attached to the land, the location, the size of the house and how updated it is and so on by doing regression analysis. Computers need large volumes of sales to work with to do the calculations.
Well, the critical point right now isn’t the process; it is that CoreLogic has had to stop publishing it. And that’s because they don’t have enough sales information. It seems low listing numbers and low results aren’t the exceptions but rather the rule right now.
This time last year we had just come through an election and the property market had been in a hiatus. The volume of property coming on to the market fell 20% nationally, one of the largest drops ever recorded. Most expected a Labor win and changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax being made almost immediately if they were to take office.
Well even against those low listing volumes, this market has dropped activity by another 20% roughly. CoreLogic report we are 43% down below the five-year average of property coming on to the market.
The question many are quietly asking is, “What happens when people stop holding off their decision or need to sell?”
Stock on the market
You might be thinking by now that there is very little stock on the market for sale and that’s understandable. Only issue is, it isn’t right. Back to SQM. They track all property advertised as I said and how long its been on the market. (Yes, I know, again with the tables, but it’s the only what I can show you easily). This is for 2112 postcode showing total unsold stock each April.
| April each Year | Numbers of property on the market |
| 2013 | 156 |
| 2014 | 159 |
| 2015 | 127 |
| 2016 | 201 |
| 2017 | 205 |
| 2018 | 307 |
| 2019 | 236 |
| 2020 | 221 |
The earlier years when the market was rising and turning over well, we might have run at 150 properties. But over the last three years the numbers of unsold properties on the market have jumped by about 40%. And at the same time as we have less property coming on the market.
Property Prices- Nobody knows
If you have ever watched the TV show QI that Stephen Fry appeared as the quizmaster and now Sandi Toksvig, you will be familiar with this phrase. On occasions, bonus points are awarded for correctly answering a question with ‘Nobody Knows’.
That’s the right answer with property prices. Right now, most people think the market is quiet because of COVID-19. Of that there is no doubt. But the turning of a market, the drivers that send markets down over years, they seem to already be in place, and they appeared well before the pandemic.
There is a lot that can change and send the market off in a different direction. Government bonuses, changes in taxation and immigration and of course the biggest driver of all, interest rates. I suspect we will not have clarity until October when the banks stop giving mortgage holidays and JobKeeper winds back.
That’s when I think we will see how resilient this market is.
Covid-19 | Important Information for our Tenants
Covid-19 | Important Information for our Tenants
Covid-19 is changing our world so much and so fast.
This is an update on how we are changing our property management department and how we can help you. No doubt we will have to adapt multiple times as each new challenge arises but we have been around for 62 years and we plan to be around for a lot longer yet.
Your Property Manager
We have spread all our properties across a larger number of Property Managers and senior staff members. The intention is to make each staff member’s workload as light as possible. It will also allow others to step in and back up if a team member falls sick for a time.
All tenants should have received an email from us stating who your property manager is and their contact details. If you have not received it, please call (02) 8878 1900 or email your details to reception@jacksonrowe.com.au
Social distancing and working in isolation is very much the name of the game now. Most of our team members are working from home now. Their phones are diverted, and they have access to their emails and most of our computer records and systems. If you need to talk to your Property Manager, send them an email, or if you need to call them, please use their direct number rather than our main office line.
Repairs
Most of our tradespeople are still working, but we will probably be a little slower with non-urgent repairs. Our tradesmen are also being hampered by the requirements the virus has placed on us all. If you are unwell, we need to know, and if you are in isolation or awaiting test results, we need to know that too. We have to protect these tradespeople and you and we have to be able to help.
Rent
Rent will continue to be upload as usual.
Everybody’s circumstances are different right now, and what is fine today may change tomorrow. If you have issues with your ability to pay rent, talk to us. We will speak with you and your owner so we can find a way forward that’s works for everyone.
Updates
We will do our best to update you as things change. If there is another email address you want us to use, let us know.
Please look after yourself, stay safe, and we will all face each day as best we can.
Sincerely,
Stephen Jackson | Director
Coronavirus Information for Landlords
Coronavirus Information for Landlords
Now for the elephant in everybody’s room
The Covid-19 will have a massive effect on our economy, far more significant than we are ready to appreciate. The idea of a Worldwide Recession is quietly accepted, but people are still trying to grapple with how to manage the disease and that leaves most of us unable to think further ahead than next week. The world is changing too fast right now for us to see much past this month, let alone the next six months.
I talked to our team about the implications of the virus and how we will manage the impact of it. That conversation was 2 weeks ago, and things are changing so fast now that we are having to adapt each couple of days.
We are emailing out regular correspondence to our Landlords. If you have not received an email from us, please call the office on 02 8878 1900 or email your contact details to us at reception@jacksonrowe.com.au so we can update our records.
The Virus and Ryde Area
This area suffered some of the first public effects of the virus. Macquarie Uni as you can imagine has had a lot less overseas students start the year, and that has dropped the overall demand for property in our area. Some of the first cases of infection were in the Eastwood area, Ryde Hospital, our local retirement homes and local schools.
The virus and how we will run our office
We started to get ready for what was happening well before many agents did, but the reality is there is only so much we can do to prepare when you have very little idea what is really needed.
One or more of our team will inevitably contract the virus and given current protocols when that happens; we will have to send our staff to work from home. We are fortunate that our team are in the low-risk category because of age (the fact that I say something like that is positively scary).
Telephones will transfer to their mobiles, and they will have their iPads with them so they will be able to take and make calls. We will maintain someone in our office to hand out keys and collect mail and so on.
Periodic inspections
We are suspending these until we have a better understanding of what practices and approaches need to change to keep our team and tenants safe. If you have a concern about your property or tenant, talk to me and we will work out what we can do.
Rents and statements
We are fortunate that we collect rent using direct debit so our team are able to manage this without the need for tenants to go to banks or post offices to pay.
Leasing property and the virus
The truth as time goes on and the spread of the infection widens, the way will lease property will have to change multiple times. The number of people out looking at property for lease is falling significantly. That could be as a result of people’s caution or fear of everything involved with moving or even government suggestions not to go outside unnecessarily.
Right now, we think we will have to stop showing property while tenants are still in residence. The fear of unknown people coming into a tenant’s home is starting to be too much for many, and the distress is counterproductive to getting the property handed back clean and ready for renting.
Open homes will be more like private inspections. Prospective tenants will be shown the property keeping numbers of people through the property at the same time down to a minimum. That probably wont be a problem because the number of people at inspections has dropped significantly. We think we will still be doing opens; however, we will have to make a lot more single appointments and share around the inspections between our team members a lot more.
Existing tenants and arrears
I think this is where things will get really hard. People will be losing their jobs, casual workers will have their work cut back, the government will help, but we have no idea how bad or long this will go on. Our approach will be to talk, lots of talking, understanding where people are at and try and assess how adverse a tenants’ circumstances are and what we can realistically expect.
We will also be talking to you a lot through the process. Things that may come up are rent reductions, rent holidays (depends how bad things get and what are the next best alternatives). I’ve been through recessions before, and a lot of tenants give notice to move back home with Mum and Dad. Again this is starting to happen.
If tenants can’t get back on their feet, we will work with them to minimise the arrears so we can get the property back on the market. One gentlemen who has been in the same property for 8 years, gave notice and is moving back overseas because the travel company he worked for has just closed down.
You can’t outrun the bear
In America, the National Park Rangers say that you can’t outrun a grizzly bear so don’t try. Instead stand still and hope he doesn’t charge. Well the virus is well and truly charging us. There is a joke that goes with that advice. The plan is to not outrun the bear, they just have to out run the guy next to them.
If the market continues to worsen and rents drop further, we will be forthright in our advice to you to adjust your asking rent quickly. We are saying that because other agents and their investors hopefully won’t adapt as quickly. We would rather they miss out on a tenant than you.
We still want the best tenant we can get. It is even more important now because a weak tenant is likely to get into trouble financially, invite people to flat with them to reduce the rent, and so on. You will hear your property manager say, ‘We have an applicant, but we don’t want him/her; instead this is what we suggest…’
Right now market rent is changing; this isn’t a wild prediction; it is happening right now. We already see it, probably again because we are closer to the first areas affected. If your property manager suggests a price reduction, please listen. If they say don’t take that person, please don’t take them.
Property values
You will see the figures in newspapers for Auction clearance rates dropping back. The hayday of clearance rates with auction clearance rates at 80%+ three weeks ago is now down to 60% as of last week. Prices will come back, but how quickly they recover depends on how fast the economy recovers and that’s a big unknown. The concern is that small businesses that close down wont be in hibernation, they will be gone and so will their employment.
I have a concern that I have talked about in previous newsletters. It is not just tenants that may end up struggling but a lot of homeowners. If you have been thinking about selling in the next six months, perhaps give me a ring, we probably should talk. If you are looking past that to next year, let’s wait and see how things are then.
Property managers
We have spread the rent roll out more evenly among our team. Your property managers name is at the top of your statement if you are unsure. If you need to call, please use their direct number and if they are not in the office, their phone will be redirected to their mobile.
Alex Ragno 8878 1928
Chantel Rowley 8878 1923
Krystal Marshall 8878 1916
Arielle Farrell 8878 1912
Kristine De Santis and I are more than happy to take your call if you prefer
Kristine De Santis 8878 1914
Stephen Jackson 8878 1913
We will get through this
Ours is a business that has faced every real estate challenge of the last 63 years. Not all agencies have our depth of experience or strength, and we do not expect to see the same competitive landscape or competition by the end of this year.
As a property investor, you are probably the most secure of all the investors in the economy. Cashflow will get flaky at times, and new challenges will come that we haven’t yet thought of, but we will handle them, and we will keep updating you as we go.
Easter Colouring Competition
Easter Colouring Competition
JacksonRowe Real Estate are having an Easter Colouring Competition. The winner will receive an Easter Hamper for the family to enjoy!
To enter, simply click on the link below to print the colouring stencil.
https://www.jacksonrowe.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Easter-Colouring-Competition-2020.pdf
Please return the entries via email to salessupport@jacksonrowe.com.au or to our office at 5 Church Street, Ryde NSW 2112 via post.
We will need to contact the winner, so please include an adults name and phone number with your entry.
Entries close Monday 6th April, 2020
Winner will be announced on Tuesday 7th April, 2020.
Happy Easter from the Team at JacksonRowe Real Estate
Updated Tenancy Regulations starting from 23rd March, 2020
Updated Tenancy Regulations starting from 23rd March, 2020
The updated Tenancy regulations come into effect 23rd March 2020 and pretty much every agent out there is working out how to set up the systems necessary to ensure they comply. In the meantime, this is a summary of the main changes:
Smoke Alarms
We have now moved back to the early days of smoke alarms where landlords and their agents have to check the batteries of smoke alarms each year unless the batteries are the non-replaceable kind.
It is pretty clear if you have a cheap smoke alarm then you are going to have an ongoing annual expense of having them checked and batteries replaced. Many agents use fire inspection companies to check the smoke detectors, but at $100 a year, it is an expense that we think can be avoided.
Breaking Lease fees
This change makes fixed-term leases far more advantageous to the tenant than for the owners. If a tenant decides to break the lease and move out early, they will have to pay 4-weeks rent as a penalty if the lease still has more than ¾ to run. It is 3-weeks when the lease has more than ½ its time to run, 2-weeks if it has more than a quarter of its time to run and only 1-week if it is in its last quarter. A tenant breaking lease in the last half of the lease has to pay less rent to you than if the lease was up and they had to give 3-weeks’ notice. This change is ridiculous.
Disclosure Statement
This change is fairly sweeping and probably means we will need a statement from an owner each time we lease a property. The disclosure requires us to advise tenants, of special works occurring at the strata, of any changes to by-laws and whether there is a strata committee set up to look at selling the block off to a developer. If we don’t advise the tenant, then the Tribunal will be able to award compensation to the tenant for moving costs, and that can be expensive.
We will be sending a more detailed description to our clients on how these changes will affect your tenancy and how we plan to protect you.
Autumn Local Market Update
Autumn Local Market Update
Our Autumn Local Market Update is now out!
I have had so many people invite me into their homes over the years, wanting an idea of value and chat about the market. It’s a delightful part of the job. You learn about their life and the history of their home, and often the focus is on how things have changed for them and how their home doesn’t quite suit them as well as it did when they first bought it. Most people love their home and the area they live in, they feel comfortable and safe, but family grows up, and things change.
I met with some friends this last weekend, two of their daughters have got married and moved out, their youngest has finished university and has her first job. They are looking forward to being empty nesters, to coming home and finding the house and the washing and everything there precisely as they had left it. I remember when my son moved out of home, discovering the pure joy of finding the food we left in the fridge still there. You love your children, but it’s the parents that sometimes rediscover the pleasure of being independent.
My friends have a big home, 4 bedrooms, study, stairs and plenty of bathrooms. A great family home but possibly not as ideal for them now that they start their retirement. As an agent, you learn never to give friends real estate advise unless they really, really want it. Family is different, they ask your opinion and then tell you you’re wrong.
Treading carefully, I asked where they thought they might move to. And I heard the same thing I have heard so many times before. We don’t know. Downsizing is something everyone sees sense in, but most have no idea how to go about it. When you were buying your current home, you were upgrading, moving into something bigger, closer to where you wanted to be, you were stretching your budget and what you could buy. It may not have been perfect, but you could always renovate later.
Downsizing is driven by different needs requires a few different ways of thinking. Upsizing is a need for space and location. Downsizing might seem to be about reducing space, but it’s not. It is about things that you are yet to fully appreciate and understand. Let me tell you about Jan.
Jan called me down to her property to get an update on her villa’s value. She was divorced, had bought the villa 5-6 years before and by all appearances was comfortable, happy and well suited to the home. As an agent, you pick up pretty quickly if a home doesn’t suit a person and vice versa. She showed me around, we chatted about what she had done to the property, and we then sat down and I showed her some of the properties that had sold nearby. To me, she seemed to have no reason to move, and so I asked her, ‘Why would you move from here, it seems to suit you so well?’
Her answer took me back a little because it was so definite and yet so vague. She wanted to be somewhere where there was more life and things to do. But where that was, she didn’t know.
‘How do I find where I should buy if I have no idea what I want?’
What a great question. It’s the same question my friends were asking, just not in the same form. Most people, when they talk about downsizing, talk about single level, no stairs, low maintenance, and so on. They talk about what they don’t want in their current home rather than what they do want in the next one. Knowing what you don’t want is important, it’s just not enough.
Back to Jan. I was also taken back by her openness and by my own lack of process as to how to systematically find the next place to live. What is the logical sequence you should employ? Most people who are empty nesters think about selling only in so much as ‘We will probably only move when we have to, because the place is too hard to look after or our health has got to that point, or we need the money’.
Ask yourself this question. If I didn’t own this home today but instead had its monetary value sitting in a bank account ready for me to spend, would this be the home I would buy? If you hesitate, it’s because you realise that there are different things you need, and you don’t have a clear idea as to what they are. Now back to Jan
I asked her to look at Realestate.com using the money we estimated for her villa and what that might buy in different areas. I had her consider anywhere from the lower mountains all the way through to Mosman and the City. Her job wasn’t to find areas she liked but to eliminate the areas and property she didn’t like. Unless there was a firm no to something, it was kept on the list as possible. This was about increasing options, not reducing them. Once she had a list of potential areas, she went out and checked out a few open houses in each location to see what she could get. Again, not looking for Mr Right but rather, getting rid of all the Mr Wrongs.
Her reduced list of property types and locations would have common themes. We just had to find what they were. Realised that certain things would make her happy, and the same with the characteristics of certain places. Now we had a profile of what good looked like.
This process was surprisingly fast, like 4 weeks fast. In that time, Jan had identified places she would have never considered, but when we talked through what it was about them, the same things kept coming up. And again, I found this next bit interesting. She decided to sell, and I mean really decided, like not going to be talked out of it. Jan didn’t know what she was going to buy exactly or where, but she knew it existed and she was more than comfortable to look for a place at the same time hers was on the market. I realised there is no certainty in buying a selling a home. Instead, if you have enough confidence and clarity in what you are doing. If you know it is going to make you happier even though everything isn’t totally apparent. It’s about being confident you’ll work it out as you go. Remind you of what you were like when you were buying?
Jan found a newer unit in Crows Nest, one flight up and with a lift. She would walk across the Harbour Bridge a couple of days a week, had her cats (I swear, one was the size of a horse and not to be messed with) and shops and café’s all round. You might be thinking, that’s an obvious place to move to, but Jan had never lived anywhere near there before. It was only obvious when she stopped looking for what she was missing and allowed herself to explore and discover.
There is a fascinating Ted talk by Barbara Oakley on Learning how to Learn. She described the mind trying to resolve a problem much the same way a pinball machine will bounce the pinball around. Struggling with a problem is like you have too many bumpers in the machine. The pinball gets stuck in one corner, bouncing around and then running down the side of the machine and out. By removing some of the things you ‘know’ and allowing the mind to consider more, a solution will come.
The world has changed a little since Jan sold and bought. We have drunk plenty of coffee together over time, and to my great relief she has always maintained how happy she is with her decision.
I made a different suggestion to my friends. I asked them to check out what the ‘Walk Score’ was for where they lived. Walk Scores are generated by a private company for every address in Australia, Canada and the USA. They calculate how liveable a location is based on what amenities you can walk to from that address. I then suggested that they look at as many other suburbs as they can to see how they compare. It was surprising to them that their own home didn’t score as well as they thought. That’s not surprising to me. They bought the home for size, driving time to where they needed to work and what was best for their growing family. It was the right answer for those needs. The thing for them is that what they want and need has changed. That means the answer must as well.
Walk Scores also allowed them to start identifying what is so good about other places. They don’t have to agree, but at least it will get them thinking about what would be useful and what wouldn’t.
My concern for my friends is that they probably have another 20 years living in their own home before they even consider retirement places. I’ve seen people who have grabbed the problem and found a solution that has made them happier. I’ve also seen too many people avoid dealing with the problem and still been okay. But okay wasn’t as good as it could have been.
Rental Market Update
Rental Market Update
If you have been a property investor for longer than the last five years, then our reports on the market probably seem a little alarmist. There are swings and roundabouts in every market and good times don’t last forever but then neither do hard times either. The rental market, probably more so than the sales market, is far more seasonal in its behaviour. December is a horrid time to try and lease out a property and February and March see our highest demand.
Cyclical variations in the rental market tend to follow the changes in interest rates with falling interest rates washing through to lower rents. Right now, interest rates are the lowest I can remember and the tsunami wave of new property hitting the market has changed the renting atmosphere. To appreciate how much things have changed, we need to look at some key statistics: these come from SQM research for postcode 2112 which includes Ryde, Denistone East and Putney. The numbers are drawn from property advertised on the internet. To give you a more long-term view I’m comparing November 2019 with November 2010.
Real rent growth is negative
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2019 | Rent Inflation | Sydney Inflation | |
| Average asking rent of a house | $558 p/w | $636 p/w | 14% | 17.4% |
| Average asking rent of a unit | $355 p/w | $477 p/w | 34% | 17.4% |
In 9 years, rents haven’t moved much at all. For houses, if you consider inflation, they have gone backwards. And with units, the figures are skewed. Predominately in 2010, the average unit on the market for rent was an older build. In 2019 the properties for lease had a far greater proportion of newly built units with far higher rents. If we could compare like for like, with the same mix of property, in 2010 and 2019, unit rents would not have increased any more than houses.
In nine years, the Ryde are has gone from being one of the highest in demand rental markets to one of the most oversupplied. There are now more than 8 times the number of properties looking for tenants as there were back in 2010. Our area has been hit so badly by this increase in rental property that REA (Realestate.com.au) say that Ryde and our surrounding area is the 76th least sought-after area in Australia. Parramatta is the worst at 79th. This ranking is based on the number of properties for lease on their website as compared to the number of ‘for lease’ searches for that area. We still have people looking for rental property, just not as many proportionally to other areas.
How tenants search and select
I don’t have information on how tenants used to look for property ten years ago, at least not in a way I can compare to right now. Again, REA has been doing research. These figures relate to the Ryde and surrounding area.
How many properties:
In a potential tenant’s search – 60+
Does a potential tenant inspect – Average – 4
Do they apply for -Average – 2
And even though a tenant applies for only 2, 90% are offered both properties they apply for. And again, according to research, 90% take their first choice. The second application is submitted because they want a backup, not because both properties are equal in appeal.
Tenants are inspecting only 1 in 15 properties available to be viewed. This result is a new world. Landlords have worked on the idea that if it were on the internet, a prospective tenant would inspect it because ‘that’s what I would do’. With the greatest respect, unless you have been a tenant recently, this is a very different world to the one you once knew.
Vacancy
These statistics come from SQM research again for postcode 2112
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2019 | Increase | |
| No of Vacant rental properties | 34 | 276 | 8.1 times as many |
| Percentage of rental property vacant | 1.1% | 4.5% | 4.1 times as much |
Now, these figures aren’t published but rather calculated from the above. They are rough figures but indicative.
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2019 | Increase | |
| No of rental properties in 2112 | 3100 | 6100 | Double
|
It is going to take a while for the market to absorb this vacancy and oversupply and return to stability. Realestate.com told us that they had tracked similar market statistics across other capital cities. They suggest the Brisbane market had a similar building boom several years ago and it took well over two years for the oversupply to be absorbed once building stopped.
We will have to see If they are right, it may mean that for the next 2-3 years owners might best approach this market as one they ride out rather than fight.
If your property is currently rented, focus on
- Keeping good tenants
- Consider improving the property with your tenants in place (we are doing a lot of this, and it is keeping tenants in place)
- Accept a lower rent if a good tenant asks for a rent reduction (we are seeing smaller rent reductions being negotiated than would be the case if the property were to come vacant)
If the property is coming up for rent, focus on
- Getting the property’s presentation right first before you market
- Market the property as well as or better than at least 90% of your competition
- Make your priority a great tenant who will stay rather than a great rent that won’t
This market isn’t going to be permanent. The best strategy is to think long term.
JacksonRowe are Finalists for Marketing Agency of the Year!
JacksonRowe are Finalists for Marketing Agency of the Year!
Exciting Announcement!
We are proud to announce we are Finalists for the Marketing Agency of the Year at the 14th Annual Australasian Real Estate Results Awards (ARERAs).
The ARERA’s celebrate the results we have enjoyed over the last 12 months, being honoured and announced as a Finalist is a huge accomplishment and all the team at JacksonRowe Real Estate are very happy to share the good news with you!
The ARERA’s are Real Estate Results Network’s annual award ceremony to recognise, celebrate and congratulate the achievements of the leading independent agencies across Australia and New Zealand.
Welcome to 2020 - January Sales Market Update
Welcome to 2020 - January Sales Market Update
It is probably the time of year, but with so many changes going on in the world, I was interested to see how things had changed over the last 9-10 years. The information below is from a variety of sources, SQM research, Domain PriceFinder and CoreLogic. The problem with statistics is that no one calculates them the same way, and that goes for these three organisations as well. It is part of the reason why there is so much argument about what is happening in the market.
Sales Volumes
These comparisons cover postcode 2112, which includes Ryde, Denistone East and Putney. I’ve looked at the surrounding postcodes, and they are all pretty similar so this will give you a good indicator of how things have changed and how they haven’t.
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2019 | Percentage increase | |
| Total Properties on the market for sale | 172 | 254 | 48% |
| Those that have been on the market over 180 days | 17 | 59 | 347% |
The numbers that strike me is the amount of property that has been on the market for a while. These numbers come from the SQM Research website. At the end of November 2019, they had identified 254 distinct properties advertised for sale and still not sold. Of those, 59 have been on the market for more than six months.
While the property market has improved since 2018, it is nowhere near what it was. Some of that has to do with new units taking longer to sell. On the other hand, SQM only tracks those advertised properties with a fully unique address. Most developers don’t advertise every unit’s individual address because they don’t want to show how many they still have for sale in a block. That would mean that SQM is more likely to be under-reporting the numbers of properties sitting on the market rather than over-reporting.
Compare that to 2010, when there was a lot less property on the market and only 17.5% of those properties were on the market for more than three months. In this market, sitting on the market is a lot more common than it used to be. And they are not the only ones to report this slower turnover.
PriceFinder who is owned by Domain, track numbers of sales and median sale price. Here are the numbers for the last six years of house sales (not all sales) in Ryde.
| Year | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 (not complete)
|
| Volume | 250 | 219 | 205 | 165 | 153 | 136 |
Back in the 1990’s and early 2000’s the average number of house sales in the suburb of Ryde was around 250 per year. That volume has fallen by close to half. So all we can say is a lot less property is selling and getting sold is not as easy as many are suggesting.
Sales Prices
Again there is a lot of disagreement between the researchers. CoreLogic is regularly quoted in the news feeds and papers and uses a variety of sources of information; they also use a rather complex algorithm (mathematical formula) to adjust the data to reflect what they believe is going on in the market. PriceFinder uses the figures from the Land titles office and makes little adjustment to the numbers to come up with their median price. These figures come from PriceFinder.
| 2010 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Median Price | $845,000 | $1,735,000 | $1,501,000 | $1,393,750 |
| Movement compared to the previous year | 9.7% | 17.2% | -13.5% |
-7.1%
|
CoreLogic has been reporting growth in Sydney prices since we had the election and the interest rates started to drop, so let us look at their figures for this year. They report median sale prices every month, so if the market has recovered in Ryde, these figures should show it. Again these are for houses rather than units.
Month Median Price
Jan $1,466,250
Feb $1,410,000
March $1,393,750
April $1,373,500
May $1,370,000
June $1,350,000
July $1,350,500
Aug $1,338,000
Sept $1,335,000
The statistics aren’t showing a recovery so much as a plateauing. Maybe October through to December will show some growth. We will have to wait and see.
If this looks a little bleak, it’s not really. Wait until you see our review next month on the rental market. Now that’s rough.
Want to know your property’s potential?
Want to know your property’s potential?
What they can write computer programs to do today is nothing short of amazing.
We have just secured access to a wonderful new program.
It combines data about each property’s details, council zoning and planning codes for its location and the cost of construction to quickly workout the development potential of nearly any property in our area.
Many properties in our area have some development potential but most are not financially viable.
This program will generate a financial feasibility report including the cost of construction, what the finished development could sell for and what a developer should pay for your site.
And it can do this in minutes rather than days. Seriously, it’s amazing!
Want to know your property’s potential?
Click on the link below from our website so that we can send you back a quick assessment of your property’s potential.
Try it out!
https://property.archistar.ai/landing/jacksonrowe/report
November Rental Market Update
November Rental Market Update
What do tenants want?
With good tenants being harder to find, what do good tenants want in a property seems an obvious question. Every month we receive more than 1000 inquiries from prospective tenants and show more than 400 people through our properties. Our team are meeting and talking to a lot of people about what they want in a rental property and what they don’t and while much of this is anecdotal, I thought it might be helpful to explain how people’s preferences are changing.
Robes and storage
The days of tenants carrying wardrobes up into their properties has well and truly gone but its more than that now. Tenants want space to store things. We see it day in and out that many tenants will first look in the bedrooms for built ins and walk straight back out if all the bedrooms don’t have built in. And before you say, ‘but my second bedroom is too small’, remember many couples want storage not children.
Air conditioning
This one has taken off and we are installing as many as two or three a month. It might be climate change or the fact that so many new properties with air conditioning are available but good tenants who have been in properties 3 or 4 years and paying above market rent are asking for air conditioning to be installed or they will move.
Dishwashers
Slightly less in demand than air conditioning, lots want it and will eliminate a property from consideration if it doesn’t have it. We have retrofitted some dishwashers into older kitchens by dismantling a cupboard. With new kitchens we are suggesting owners include them where possible into the design.
Pets
People want dogs and cats and in units as well as houses. It used to be that strata by laws barred this as a possibility but recent rulings by the courts have made blanket strata bans as illegal. While our preference is to avoid pets, we also know that the pet is not as important as the tenant. We have had good tenants with pets and bad tenants without. Responsible tenants are responsible with their pets and clauses in the standard lease require the carpet to be cleaned and the property fumigated when the tenant leaves.
JacksonRowe Real Estate Post-it Notes!
JacksonRowe Real Estate Post-it Notes!
Keep a look out in your mail-box for JacksonRowe Real Estate Post-it Notes!
We are busy delivering these throughout Ryde and its surrounding suburbs.
The post it notes are made from recycled paper & the cello bags are re-usable, archival/acid free and recyclable along with other soft plastics.
We are committed to reusing or recycling all of our products and packaging!
The Smith Family Christmas Toy & Book Appeal
The Smith Family Christmas Toy & Book Appeal
Please join in the spirit of Christmas & giving this year by kindly donating a toy or book to our Christmas Toy and Book Appeal.
All gifts will be donated to The Smith Family who are aiming to deliver 27,000 brand new toy & book packs to help bring smiles to many disadvantaged children
on Christmas morning.
Simply purchase your gift and drop it into our office at 5 Church Street, Ryde
All gifts will need to be dropped to JacksonRowe by Wednesday 11th December, 2019.
At the request of The Smith Family, please do not wrap your gift.
Your generosity is highly valued, and we appreciate the time and effort it takes to get a special gift for a child in need.
For more information please click the links below:
https://events.thesmithfamily.com.au/event/toy-and-book/faqs
JacksonRowe Christmas Colouring Competition!
JacksonRowe Christmas Colouring Competition!
We are holding our annual Christmas Colouring Competition!
To enter, simply click on the link below and print out the stencil (or pop into our office to pick one up) and have your kids colour it in.
Click here: Colouring Competition 2019
Please put down your child’s name and age on the front.
Post or drop the entries to our office at 5 Church Street, Ryde.
We will need to contact the winner so please put down the best contact number on the back with an adult’s name.
The winner will receive a family pass to visit your choice of 2 attractions from SeaLife Sydney Aquarium, Wildlife Sydney Zoo, Madame Tussauds or Sydney Tower Eye.
Entries close Saturday 14th December, 2019.
Winner will be announced on Monday 16th December, 2019.
Merry Christmas from the Team at JacksonRowe!
September Rental Market Update
September Rental Market Update
I’ll admit I’m a bit obsessed with interest rates and how far they can fall. I use to think zero was the limit but it turns out it is not.
Negative interest rates have been available in Europe since 2014 apparently. The talk of the RBA dropping rates to these levels proves that nothing is off the table when it comes to getting the economy going. However, if you are a property investor, this could get really interesting (ok, pun intended).
A property’s rent well and truly covers the standard outgoings but rarely the mortgage’s interest payments as well unless the loan is relatively small. Banks are now particularly interested in attracting and holding borrowers who have a loan to value ratios (known as LVRs) of less than 60% and are offering extra discounts to win your business.
If mortgage interest rates fall to zero or near it, we could reach a point where much of Sydney investment property could be generating positive cashflow. This used to be the strength of regional property investment but never Sydney property.
In the past, people sold their investment property when they were retiring and invested the money to generate an retirement income.
Maybe that could change and residential investment instead could become an acceptable income generator.
July Rental Market Update
July Rental Market Update
SQM research has released their report into Vacancy Rates across the country. Across Sydney it shows that the vacancy rate for June 2019 now sits at 3.5% which may not mean a lot to many. Statistically 2% vacancy is considered to be indicative of stable rental market while higher vacancy rates suggest rents will fall. So, 3.5% isn’t great news. In June 2018, the vacancy rate in Sydney was 2.8%. That’s a deterioration of 25% from last year to now. It probably won’t surprise you that unit vacancies are worse than houses. This is a direct result of the unit building boom. However, our area is different as they say, so I accessed a specialist report from SQM Research for postcode 2112 because it is indicative of our local area.
Vacancy rate for 2112 is sitting at 4.5%, and that is really not good.
On property prices and growth, SQM use a star rating system for each postcode to identify areas they consider good buying. 2112 comes with a 3.2-star rating which means as they say,
‘There is greater than average risk of the area underperforming over the medium term’.
But always with statistics, you have to ask, ‘Compared to what?’
Well across NSW, postcode 2112 still rated better than close to 60% of all the postcodes. In fact, around 50% of postcodes were rated as areas that required ‘Strong Caution’ or just flat out ‘Avoid’. Real estate is going to stay tough for a while, but we will still be better off than plenty of other Sydney property owners.
